India and its neighbourhood policy

Challenges in India’s neighbourhood:

·         India’s neighbourhood is a complex one.

·         Largest region in the world by Population.

·         It is one of the least integrated regions with tremendous deficits in terms of infrastructure, connectivity, and interdependence.

·         Also, this region is now being exposed to various geopolitical competition dynamics because of rise of China and increasing US influence in the region.

As far as Chinese influence in the region is concerned India is faced mainly three challenges:
1. COVID - 19 Pandemic
2. Growing competition for influence in South Asia, and
3. Chinese aggression along the Line of Actual Control (LAC)

COVID - 19 and the competition for influence –

·         Because of the COVID 19 crisis both India and China have competed to increase their influence in the region through the relief efforts.

·         Indian efforts - Even after being one of the worst hit countries by the Pandemic, India because of its inherent strength in the Pharma sector and its influence in South Asia has effectively used this crisis to provide relief in the region.

·         India is one of the world’s leading producers of pharmaceutical drugs and vaccines.

·         Prime Minister held a special virtual summit of eight SAARC nations and proposed a COVID-19 package.

·         Out of which India provided about half of the $20 million funding for relief.

·         India’s military ran a series of missions to SAARC countries and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) with supplies of food and medicines.

·         India’s ‘Vande Bharat’ mission flew home nationals from neighbouring countries, along with lakhs of Indians who had been stranded during the lockdown.

Chinese efforts:

·         China promised to provide the Chinese-made Sinovac vaccine to SAARC countries including Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

·         China provided PPE kits and medical equipment to South Asian countries.

·         All the SAARC countries are part of the Chinese BRI Project except India and Bhutan.

·         And majority of these countries are under Chinese debt.

·         As such China has started to provide partial debt waivers to the Maldives and Sri Lanka.

·         It also extended a massive $1.4-billion Line of Credit to Pakistan.

Recent upheavals impacting the regional ties:

Increasing Chinese assertiveness –

·         Chinese aggression along the LAC in the Ladakh region led to the death of 20 Indian soldiers in the Galwan valley.

·         China also laid claim to Bhutan’s Sakteng natural reserves.

·         China has also annexed around 150 hectares of land along the Nepal border.

·         A new defence pact has been signed between China and Pakistan.

·         And there has been a sharp rise in ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan.

·         Rising Chinese aggression and the growing bonhomie between China and Pakistan both in economic and military areas, point towards the possibility of two front war.

Other events:

·         India has witnessed border issues with Nepal along the Kalapani.

·         Nepal has amended its constitution to include the disputed territory within its Political map.

SAARC has taken a backseat in India's regional pursuits –

·         It is said that the format of SAARC is outdated and does not serve the complex, fluid regional cooperation agenda any longer. This is mainly because India has refused to attend the SAARC meeting in Pakistan over terrorism issue.

·         Further Pakistan is pursuing its regional connectivity goals exclusively with China in the form of CPEC.

·         While India which does not align itself with Chinese OBOR has started focussing on the Indian Ocean region. This has led to a split of the subcontinent between India and Pakistan which has effectively stagnated the SAARC.

·         India has revived BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) and worked in the BBIN (Bangladesh Bhutan-India-Nepal) quadrilateral for a framework on motor vehicle and water governance.

·         However, India should understand that India's neighbouring countries other than Pakistan have shown interest in the working of the SAARC.

India’s response to the challenges:

·         India has been pushing forward its Neighbourhood first Policy and the SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) strategy to handle these recent challenges.

Infrastructure

·         India has stepped up the delivery of Infrastructure in the region.

·         Completion of railway lines to Bangladesh and Nepal, riverine projects, ferry service to the Maldives, identifying other services to Sri Lanka and IOR islands.

·         India has provided line of credit to the tune of $ 400 million to Maldives.

Welcoming entry of other powers to counter China

·         India has welcomed the U.S.’s new military dialogue with the Maldives.

·         America’s Millennium Challenge Corporation’s (MCC) projects in Afghanistan, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh.

·         The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) is an innovative and independent U.S. foreign assistance agency that is helping lead the fight against global poverty. MCC forms partnerships with developing countries who are committed to good governance, economic freedom and investing in their citizens.

Diplomatic efforts:

·         India has stepped up the collaboration in the Quadrilateral security Dialogue.

·         Malabar naval exercise has been expanded to include Australia.

Way forward:

·         India's engagement with our neighbouring countries should not be episodic. It should not be event oriented; it should be process-oriented. India needs to have a plan for continuous engagement at various levels.

·         India has realised that there is a need for greater connectivity and integration in the region, especially because of the increasing Chinese influence in its neighbourhood.

·         Further to check the growing Chinese influence in the neighbourhood, India should focus on creating interdependence in the region with the aim of extracting strategic leverage.

·         We know that India has taken over various connectivity initiatives, in terms of energy, interdependence, infrastructural connectivity, grants
and loans.

·         However, it is being said that these connectivity initiatives will be meaningless if there is lack of economic integration and easy movement of people
and capital.

·         India should not be averse to the idea of cooperation in the subcontinent by the way of SAARC.

·         Also, if India moves away from SAARC it is quite possible that China can be invited to this forum. This will make things even more difficult for India.

Chinese assertion and its vulnerabilities

Hong Kong:

Hong Kong is a special administrative region within China because of its British legacy. However, China has effectively tried to curb the autonomy by passing a series of legislations which has ignited serious protests across Hong Kong. 

Some of these legislations include:

1.      Extradition Law - A legislation (which was later scrapped) that would allow the local government to extradite criminals to the mainland China.

2.      National Security Law - On June 30, 2020, minutes before the anniversary of Hong Kong’s handover to China by the British, China’s legislature approved a new national security law for Hong Kong. This effectively curbed the dissent and civil liberties in Hong Kong.

3.      Expulsion of Lawmakers - this law empowers the Chinese government to expel lawmakers in Hong Kong’s Legislative Council without recourse to judicial process.

Other instances of aggression:

·         Chinese assertion of sovereignty over Taiwan which claims itself to be an independent nation.

·         Chinese assertion along LAC with India in the Galwan valley.

·         Territorial claims in South China Sea.

·         Chinese manipulation of WHO, which has adversely impacted the image of multilateral institutions which are already under strain due to the process of retreating Multilateralism that is being witnessed.

·         Domestically China has tried to curb the dissenting voices in its administration.

Economy:

·         China has pursued an export led growth strategy which is popularly called as “international circulation”.

·         However, this strategy is facing challenges because of declining global economy as a result of the COVID pandemic. Further US has imposed restriction on Chinese exports. It is also facing challenges in the technical field with Huawei being denied the go ahead for 5G roll out in many countries.

·         Thus, domestic consumption led growth is one of the options that remains with China.

·         However, China is trying to woo international circulation with its Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, improving Financial ties, attracting global investors etc.

·         Further its Economic strategy for the future will only be out once its 14th five-year plan rolls out.

Wolf warrior approach:

·         Through the series of Movies named “Wolf warrior”, China is showing itself to be assuming the responsibility of saving the world.

·         The depiction of the saviour of the world image, clearly reflects the change in stance from the previous president Deng Xiaoping’s approach of ‘keeping a low profile’ to the Xi Jinping's “Aggressive and Assertive China”.

Challenges of the mighty image of China:

·         US State Department released a comprehensive report which is being described as a potential blueprint for the U.S.’s response to China’s rise as an authoritarian superpower.

·         By escalating a tariff war with China, U.S. President Donald Trump underscored the need for a potential economic decoupling of the world’s two major economies.

·         Thus, it is being said that more pushback China faces globally, the more aggressive its domestic and foreign policy agenda is likely to become.

·         The events in Hong Kong, Taiwan, India and muzzling of dissent in administration has adversely impacted the Chinese image globally.

·         A survey by the Pew Research Centre across 14 nations shows that a majority of the respondents have an unfavourable opinion of China.

Conclusion:

·         Many in China may see this year as one in which the country came into its own as a power dictating the global agenda, but for many around the world, this is also the year when China’s vulnerabilities, as well the challenges it poses to the global order, became all too apparent.